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印刷

Regarding the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake

International Workshop on Strategy of Volcanic Disaster Mitigation 2011---Big eruption & Crisis Management---

Date: 2-4 November, 2011
Venue:Yamanashi Institute of Environmental Sciences, Fujiyoshida(Nov. 2nd)
http://www.yies.pref.yamanashi.jp/

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba(Nov. 4th)
http://www.bosai.go.jp/

Objectives:

We have experienced big eruptions at many volcanoes and have suffered from tragic hazards. Especially for huge volcanic eruptions damaging wide areas around volcanoes, mainly due to volcanic ash falls, blasts, pyroclastic flows etc. The authorities face difficulties to judge how dangerous the activity would be and how to proceed disaster mitigation plan like evacuation of thousands of residents effectively under the collaboration of many local governments.


In this international workshop, we refer to some good experiences at Merapi, Montserrat and Vesuvio and discuss the effective procedures to deal with such huge volcanic eruptions and crisis. In session 1 at YIES (Nov. 2), we target the strategy of volcanic disaster mitigation of national and local governments. We also review the activity of local governments during the recent (2011) Kirishima volcano eruption, Japan, and obtain lessons. In session 2 at NIED (Nov. 4), we discuss on technological view of numerical simulations for evaluation of disasters due to volcanic ash fall, pyroclastic flows etc. For more quantitative estimation of volcanic hazards, numerical simulation is effective, but we have some limitations to apply them to actual strategy of political plan.


Schedule(Draft)

Nov. 2nd (1st day)

10:00 Opening Remarks (Shigeo Aramaki, YIES president)
10:10 Briefing (Takashi Uchiyama, YIES)
Session 1: Crisis management strategy for big eruptions
10:20 Barry Voight (Penn. State University)
Scientific and emergency-management response to volcanic risk: Lessons from Montserrat and selected other volcanoes
11:05 Augusto Neri (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) Scientific and emergency-management response to volcanic risk: the Vesuvius example
(11:50-13:00 lunch time)
13:00 Manabu Nishiguchi (Cabinet Office, Japan)
On volcanic crisis management of the government, Japan
13:20 Hitoshi Yamasato(Japan Meteorological Agency)
On volcanic eruption alert levels & observation network
13:40 Mitsuhiro Hikada (Takaharu town, Miyazaki, Japan)
Proposals by the experiences of the 2011 Kirishima volcano eruption, Japan
14:00 Katsushi Uto (Kirishima city, Kagoshima, Japan)
Response to Shin'moe-dake eruption (Kirishima city)
14:20 Toshitsugu Fujii (CEMI & ERI, Univ. of Tokyo)
TBD
(14:45-15:05 coffee break)
15:05 Discussions (coordinated by Shigeo Aramaki)
16:30 Closing remarks by TBD, YIES

Nov. 4th (2nd day)

9:30 Opening Remarks (Yoshimitsu Okada, NIED president)
Session 2: Application of numerical simulation and its limitation for disaster evaluation
9:45 Barry Voight(Penn. State University)
Modeling pyroclastic flow and surge hazards: assumptions, capabilities, limitations and integration with civil defense strategies
10:30 Augusto Neri(Istituto Nazaionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia)
Assessing volcanic hazards of explosive eruptions by using numerical models: present capabilities and limitations
11:15 Christina Magill(Macquarie University)
Quantifying volcanic risk in Japan: a framework for probabilistic hazard and loss modeling
(12:00-13:00 lunch time)
13:00 Eisuke Fujita(NIED)
Development of large-scale lava flow hazard evaluation system
13:20 Yujiro Suzuki(ERI)
Volcanic plume simulation and evaluations of big eruptions
13:40 Shinji Takarada(Geological Survey of Japan, AIST)
Next-generation real-time volcanic hazard evaluation system for pyroclastic flow disasters: GEO Grid volcanic gravity flow simulation and V-Hub project
14:00 Yoshiaki Ida(Advance Soft Cooperation & Univ. of Tokyo)
Applications of numerical simulations on volcanic eruptions to hazard mitigation
(14:20-14:30 break)
14:30-15:00 Discussion (Chair: Shigeo Aramaki, and Eisuke Fujita)
15:00 Closing Remarks (Toshikazu Tanada, NIED)

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