Recent progress of Japan’s regional downscaling project (SI-CAT)and CORDEX Asia Empirical-Statistical Downscaling (ESD)Koji DAIRAKUNational Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, JapanMulti-model ensemble regional climate scenarios with 1km horizontal grid-spacing over Japan are developed by using CMIP5 GCMs and a statistical downscalings (e.g., Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD)) to investigate uncertainty of projected change associated with structural differences of the GCMs for the periods of historical climate (1950-2005) and near term climate (2026-2050).Need to adapt climate change impacts and social structure change● Integrating the science and application of downscaling activities in Asia (EA, SEA, SA etc.) to provide regional climate information and service for risk assessment and IPCC AR6. ● Case studies of inter-comparison of multi-ESD methods in small domain and a common benchmark for investigating uncertainty of regional climate scenarios.ESD for Pan-Asia with 0.25 degreeRain gauge distribution for APHRO_V1101 (year: 1998)Contributed to the report by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Japan for G7 Working Group on Climate Change and Fragility(Sep 6th 2017 press release) http://www.mofa.go.jp/ic/ch/page25e_000149.html● The 4th CORDEX Science and Training workshop in East Asia, 23-26 Nov 2015, Beijing● The 2nd ESGF training workshop, 23-25 Feb 2016, Jeju● 4th Workshop of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID)/ CORDEX Southeast Asia Project & Discussion on the Formation ESD Group in CORDEX Asia, 23-25 Nov 2016, Hanoi● UNFCCC(SBSTA46) Research Dialogue(RD9), 10 May 2017, Bonn ● International Workshop on Climate Downscaling Studies, 2-4 Oct 2017, Tsukuba● 2017 TCCIP International Workshop: (I) Statistical Approach to Climate Change Studies, 28-29 Nov 2017, TaipeiSI-CATThe Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology CORDEX Asia Empirical-Statistical downscaling (ESD)SI-CAT FrameworkHi-resolution multi-ensemble statistical downscalingregional climate scenariosCORDEX Asia- ESD groupPossible common protocolfor Pan-Asia ESDContribution to the report ofMOFA for G7 Working Group on Climate Change and Fragility StakeholderCollaboration todevelop a product tomeet the needs A Case of Model Municipalities (GIFU) SI-CAT Technology Development Organizations Summary To meet with the needs of stakeholders such as National/local governments, spatio-temporal comprehensive and consistent information is necessary and useful for decision making to adapt climate change impacts.Co-Design of adaptation measures by stakeholders SI-CAT has been developing reliable technologies to find climate change adaptation measures in collaboration with natural/ social scientists and local government.Regional Climate Scenario(Near-term, 1km grid, with Uncertainty Information) We develop a large number of multi-model ensemble near-term (2026-2050) regional climate scenarios with 1km horizontal grid-spacing over Japan by dynamical and statistical downscaling methods.Share the Data, Knowledge, and Techniques Based on the SI-CAT experiences, the CORDEX Asia ESD group enhances and integrates the science and application of downscaling activities in Asia by sharing and exchanging data, knowledge, and techniques.Acknowledgements: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program and SI-CAT Program of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan (MEXT).National Plan for Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate ChangeData Integration and Analysis System Program (DIAS)Climate Change Adaptation BillMinistry of EnvironmentClimate change Adaptation Regional ConsortiumMinistry of Ministry of Agriculture, Forestryand Fisheries of JapanMinistry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (Hokkaido Regional Development Bureau)Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU)● Quantitative flood assessment in Nagara basin under climate change.● 100-year floods are projected to be 50-year floods in 2030, and be 30-year floods in 4K global warming scenarios.Examples ofprediction offlood probabilityin Nagara basin 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 d4PDF_4K n=5490 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 d4PDF_2K n=1757 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 n=3000 PastN=3000 N=1757 3055 3947 4866 5762 6391 7078 8054 3414 4441 5581 6643 7357 8361 9144 3640 4721 6050 7540 8361 9394 10690 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 pastd4PDF_2K d4PDF_4K designed high water discharge averag5 yearsm3/s10 years20 years30 years50 years100yearsClimate ensemble projections(2026 – 2050)Development ofreliable databaseon near-termclimate changeprojectionsDevelopment ofdownscaling echnologiesDevelopment ofapplication tool forassessing impactsExtraction of extreme eventsfrom large scale database 1km climate ensemble scenariodatabase with probability information1km dynamical downscalingSuper high resolution downscalingDataCooperationCORDEX Asia- ESD group Related MeetingsProbability of 2m Temperature2026-20502076-2100Projected changes(Annual mean 2mT)RCP8.5ESD OutputSample(BCSD, Wood et al. 2002,Wood et al. 2004,Maurer et al. 2008)1degree RegriddedMIROC5 OriginalDownscaledBias correctedProjected future change of annualprecipitation(pr, Daily) SI-CAT Climate Scenario WG local governments ScientistsPrivate CompaniesClimate Data ProcessingClimate InformationPRODUCT1km ensemble climate scenario databaseData Processing andQuality CheckRisk of Climate changeLocal adaptation scenarios(Who should do what for future) Social Structure Changeex) Nagara river basin: Big Population (860,000)Weak flood controlHigh risk of flood and draughtSI-CAT Technological Development Organization ● Near term hi-resolution climate changeprojections● Impact assessments SI-CAT: model municipality [Gifu Univ. + Gifu Pref.]SI-CAT Social Implementation Organization ● Stakeholder analysis● Social adaptation scenariosbased on social structurechanges● Population : decrease and aging rapidly● Local community: shrink and weaken● Local economy: tax payer and consumer decrease 305539474866576263917078805436404721605075388359939310689020004000600080001000012000510203050100Risk assessment of flood and landslide in Nagara river basin● Flood discharge projection based on ensemble climate change projection database● Comprehensive flood control ● Risk assessment of landslidesConsideration of adaptation scenario (based on risk assessment (Hazards and social changes)) ● Stakeholder meetings● Co-design of local adaptation scenarios by stakeholdersOriginalDataIntermediate Products ①Intermediate Products ②FinalProductsCMIP5 Climate model data（monthly/daily, 1～5 deg）Regrid data（monthly/daily, 1deg）Bias correction data（monthly/daily, 1deg）BCSD data（monthly /daily, 1km）Regrid（→1deg）＆ Calendar correction of daily dataBias correctionby CDFDMDownscaling byScaling factor methodQC ofCMIP5 dataQC ofRegrid dataQC of BC dataCross validationQC of BCSD dataCross validationRecent progress of Japan's regional downscaling project (SI-CAT) and CORDEX Asia Empirical-Statistical Downscaling (ESD)社会防災システム研究部門 大楽浩司2019.02.22 平成30年度 成果発表会
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